Writer Reza Aslan over at The Daily Beast (another wonderful online news magazine) interviewed an important figure from the ‘99 student protests, Ahmad Batebi. Here is what Batebi says about the protests: “It is about all the many ways in which the regime has failed them over the last 30 years. It is about the things that the regime has failed to provide: a secular government, human rights, women’s rights, etc.” Reza also added his own viewpoint: “What Khāmene’i [the supreme leader of the country with, basically, dictatorial powers] seems not to recognize is that the uprising in Iran is no longer about a disputed election. It is about his own legitimacy as Iran’s supreme leader."(Check out Reza’s full article).
The truth is that what will decide the fate of Iran is happening behind the scenes, dictated by a few groups of Iranian power brokers. One group, led by Khāmene’i, represents the conservative hard-line ideas of Iran, those who do not believe in democracy or acceptance of western ideas and values. On the other side, you have some of the leaders of the ‘79 revolution who fought to give the country back to the people of Iran. This group believes in becoming a more open country, sending women to school, and becoming part of the world economy. After making some headway in reforming certain aspects of Iranian life, their efforts were largely halted after Ahmadinejad first became president four years ago.
Another aspect of the internal struggle regards the direction of the economy. Will the Iranian economy enter the world economy, as the reformers led by Mousavi would like, or will the country remain closed off, furthering the wealth and power of those that run the black market (the Revolutionary Guard )?
A further battle continues to rage amongst the clerical elite. There are those within the establishment who have been unhappy for years about the political involvement of some clerics. Could this stolen election be the spark needed for them to take a more active role in the future of their nation?
Many of Iran’s power players have been in Qom, the religious capitol of Iran and the Shiite world, trying to sway the clerical establishment. Aslan, of The Daily Beast, believes the future of Iran will be decided in Qom.
A good sign that the reformers are making progress (as far as swaying the opinion of the clerical elite in Qom) is that while many powerful clerics have spoken out condemning the election and the brutal, oftentimes fatal, tactics used against protestors, very few have stood up in support of the alleged victor Ahmadinejad.
The good news for the challengers of the election is that they refuse to quit. Despite being attacked by the military, arrested, and seeing their friends and family members killed during the street protests, they continue to call for even more protests in the form of strikes or holiday celebrations. In contrast, in 1999, student protests rocked Iran, but the level of violence against the protesters by the ruling regime eventually forced them to quit.
Strikes by powerful groups in Iran have a history of making a large impact in the nation. A strike last year by the bazaar, for example, nearly shut down Iran’s national economy. Considering that the bazaar is a major player in the culture of Iran, especially regarding the economy, its decision to join the protests was just another sign of how much grassroot support today’s protestors could potentially rally again.
Also, the power figures that have circled to help Mousavi in his fight against the alleged coup have come together to organize a new political party. In the past, this would not have had the support among those in power, but now too many are angry with Khāmene’i. Such anger can also be seen by the fact that while many have mentioned banning Mousavi from running for political office in the future, no law has actually been passed yet.
Two ideas that Aslan has mentioned as a face-saving solution to the problem are: 1) Some type of power-sharing agreement between the two blocks of power and between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. 2) A runoff election where the nation would vote again for the two candidates that received the most votes in the presidential election, Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. Although how anyone would ever be able to trust the vote count again is another story…
Check out these four online authors for more information on Iran:
- Juan Cole is a professor at Michigan University with a great repository of knowledge about the Middle East.
- Reza Aslan is a writer and religious scholar.
- Robert Dreyfuss is an investigative journalist.
- Nico Pitney has blogged every day about the events in Iran since the presidential election. His writing is full of links that would take anyone months to address.
Ian August has a degree in politics and economics from SUNY Old Westbury, perhaps one of the greatest institutions in the country. You can read more of his writings on Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, and his blog, nationsofrumi.blogspot.com.